January 2006 ISSUE
THE KEYSER FILE
SPECIALIZED KNOWLEDGE SEES
WHAT SEISMIC CAN'T
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BY Tom Keyser
Freelance Columnist
His idea of a wonderful time is a hike with colleagues and friends through the Southern Alberta foothills. He also takes pleasure in creating exquisitely detailed, cross-sectional diagrams of the geological strata beneath them.
In fact Andrew (Andy) Newson, P.Geol., has spent 30-plus years studying, analyzing and flat-out enjoying a uniquely beautiful region he describes as a “fabulous natural laboratory for understanding fold-and-thrust belts.”
A consulting geologist, Mr. Newson received his theoretical training in the U.K. before setting himself up as president of Calgary-based Moose Oils Ltd. He routinely lectures on his favourite subject, while leading annual field trips for geologists, geophysicists and interested members of the public who share his enthusiasm.
“It's a remarkable place. We can drive out to Canmore, hike up a mountain with a pair of binoculars, and see shapes and folds everywhere we look, right at the surface,” he says with a grin.
But there’s also business in them thar hills.
Mr. Newson's job is to help his clients evaluate the gas-bearing potential of their foothills-based assets. They ask him to estimate how much natural gas they can expect to find on their lease and how much gas is going to come out of the ground. They're also anxious to know how often he tends to be right.
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Andrew Newson, P.Geol., at right, leads a company fieldtrip at 7,000 freet above sea level in the front ranges of the Rocky Mountains near Calgary. "I have led about 25 such trips now," says formation of the large recent foothills gas discoveries and as team-building exercises." |
A Helpful Specialty
Since reliable seismic images are notoriously difficult to obtain in the foothills,
his specialized brand of structural geology comes in handy indeed.
Pointing to a cross-sectional graph representing geological formations near Yamnuska, for example, Mr. Newson indicates a strata of high-velocity carbonates, forced near the surface by endless geological folding and thrusting as continental plates have collided over millennia. Such high-velocity carbonates act as a shield — one that resists all but blurry and imprecise seismic imaging.
In the absence of substantial help from the seismic quarter, he interprets what's going on at various depths beneath the Earth's crust by means of a careful analysis of the surface and drill holes.
As he explains it, Southern Alberta's foothills represent a single band of the Rocky Mountain fold-and-thrust belt, which extends from Alaska through Southern Alberta, before getting a bit more diffuse as it swings its way through Montana and the Western U.S.
“Then it turns up again near the Andes and winds all the way down to Tierra del Fuego,” Mr. Newson adds. “It's a fascinating and complex area — a bit of a jigsaw puzzle to add it all up.”
It's also proven to be a rich source of natural gas, which helps explain why Mr. Newson has been so busy.
Knowing What’s Left
As a member of the Canadian Gas Potential Committee, he enjoys a clear read on
the extent of remaining reserves. Originally created in 1991, the committee represents
a response to industry demands for accurate reserve estimates, from an industry
perspective.
The committee has produced a series of thorough studies, researched and authored by hands-on experts rather than academic theorists. Based on the most recent analysis of foothills reserves, it's a good news/bad news scenario.
About 40 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, says Mr. Newson, has been discovered in the Southern foothills, a 1,600-kilometre band (total area: 83,000 kilometres) that extends north from Waterton to the gas fields of Fort Liard. That leaves approximately 32 t.c.f. — less than half the total — remaining to be found.
Experts with the gas potential committee predict that the next three major discoveries will be situated in this region of the foothills — but clearly, we're dealing with finite numbers.
Nevertheless, Mr. Newson is fairly optimistic that deep-well exploration and drilling strategies initiated by forward-looking majors such as Talisman Energy may open up new reserves and new opportunities.
He commends Talisman (not a client, by the way) and others for taking a chance on new natural gas plays in the foothills that tap into strata so deep they haven't yet been successfully modelled.
“The company took a chance and it seems to be paying off,” says Mr. Newson of Talisman's deep-drilling efforts. “It's real wildcat exploration in the classic sense.”
It may also lead to subsequent discoveries that rewrite the history of natural gas exploration in the Western foothills — and give Mr. Newsom a few new tales to tell on his hiking trips.